Armenia's GDP slowed down y-o-y growth in the first quarter of 2020 from 7.1% to 3.8%, amounting to 1.3 trillion AMD ($ 2.6 billion). The GDP deflator index in the first quarter of 2020 decreased to 98% from 103.8% in the first quarter of 2019. This is evidenced by the data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia.
According to the results of the first quarter of 2020, the trade sector, the services sector and the industrial sector remain dominant in GDP in terms of volume, but the energy complex and industrial sector are the drivers by y-o-y growth. Among the dominant areas, the improvement in y-o-y dynamics was observed in the energy sector - with a 14.8% increase from a 14% decline, in the industrial sector - with an acceleration of growth from 2% to 8.7%, while the leaders in volume terms slowed down growth: trade sector - from 10.1% to 0.2%, services - from 17.3% to 5.7%. The agricultural sector showed a reversal of y-o-y dynamics from a 0.2% decline to a 4.5% growth. And the y-o-y trend in the construction sector was negative 9.4% against last year's positive 10.8%.
In quarterly terms, Armenia's GDP fell by 38.8%, against a decline of 36.4% in the 1st quarter of 2019 and growth by 6.6% in the 4th quarter of 2019. Armenia's GDP per capita in the first quarter of 2020 amounted to 428.3 thousand AMD ($ 888), against 418.9 thousand AMD ($ 860) in the first quarter of 2019. The change in this indicator was recorded against the background of a decrease in the population by 0.2% per annum to 2.957 million people by April 1, 2020, against a decline of 0.3% a year earlier.
The average settlement rate of dram in January-March 2020 amounted to 482.32 AMD/ $ 1, against 487.23 AMD / $ 1 - in January-March 2019. It should be noted that according to the World Bank forecast, the GDP growth of Armenia in 2020 will amount to 1.7% (according to the baseline scenario), but the likelihood of a decline is also possible. In terms of Armenia's foreign trade, the WB forecasts for 2020 a decline in exports and imports by 1.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The IMF predicts a 1.5% drop in GDP in Armenia for 2020. The Government of the Republic of Armenia predicts a 2% drop in GDP for 2020. The CBA forecasts a slowdown in GDP growth in 2020 to a stagnant 0.7% (from the actual 7.6% growth in 2019).
To recall, in Armenia, as part of measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, a state of emergency was introduced from March 16, which will last until June 13. In this regard, a temporary ban was imposed on many types of economic activities in the first month of emergency, which was partially lifted in the second half of April. Since May 4, the list of permitted types of business activities has been further expanded to ensure the vital functions of the economy, and since May 18, the ban has been lifted almost completely. From the same day, public transport (including the metro) and many public catering facilities and services began to operate, but so far the activities of international air, rail, and bus services have been limited.